A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
